Jonas Peeters

• Jules van Binsbergen, Sophia Hua, Jonas Peeters, Jessica Wachter (2025), Is the United States a lucky survivor? A hierarchical Bayesian approach, Journal of Finance, 80 (4), pp. 2355-2388. Abstract

  Using international data, we quantify the magnitude of survivorship bias in U.S. equity market performance, finding that it explains about one-third of the equity risk premium in the past century. We model the subjective crash belief of an investor who infers the crash risk in the United States by cross-learning from other countries. The U.S. crash probability shows a persistent and widening divergence from the implied global average. We attribute the upward bias in the measured equity premium to crashes that did not occur in-sample and to shocks to valuations resulting from learning about the probability.

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Past Courses

• BEPP1000 - Introductory Economics

  Microeconomics is the study of the behavior of households and firms, whose collective decisions determine how resources are allocated in a free market economy. We will study when markets are likely to produce "efficient" outcomes, and when government intervention may improve on or harm the competitive market outcome. We will use economic theory to analyze issues like a gas tax to change reliance on oil, minimum wages to increase salaries of the working poor, and government subsidies to increase education. Macroeconomics is the study of the economy as a whole. We will understand how the size of the US economy is determined, how unemployment is measured, how inflation affects life. We will look at policy options that the government and the Federal Reserve Bank face, and discuss pros and cons of their actions. Economic arguments are often used in debates about government policies, discussion of business strategies, and many of life's other arenas. The goal of the course is to teach you to "think like an economist," which I hope will help you to understand the world around you, make better economic decisions in your own life, and be a more informed citizen and voter.

Knowledge @ Wharton

• Understanding AI’s Impact on Productivity, GDP, and Federal Debt, Knowledge @ Wharton - 09/19/2025
• Yahoo’s Global Head of B2B Marketing, Sponsorships, and Events, Shannon Shae Montoya, Knowledge @ Wharton - 09/18/2025
• Breaking Down Records, Rankings, and Coaching With NFL Analytics, Knowledge @ Wharton - 09/17/2025
• Google Antitrust Ruling, Market Competition, and the Future of Search, Knowledge @ Wharton - 09/17/2025
• What’s Behind the Endless Breakup-Merger Cycle?, Knowledge @ Wharton - 09/16/2025
• Is Housework Holding Back Wage Equality?, Knowledge @ Wharton - 09/16/2025
• How Subjectivity Affects Stock Prices and Firm Valuations, Knowledge @ Wharton - 09/16/2025
• The Luxury of Counterfeits | John Zhang, Knowledge @ Wharton - 09/16/2025
• A Transformational Gift for Quantitative Finance at Wharton, Knowledge @ Wharton - 09/15/2025
• Expanding Retirement Portfolios With Alternative Investment Options, Knowledge @ Wharton - 09/12/2025