Alexandr Kopytov

Contact Information

Primary Email:
akopytov@wharton.upenn.edu
Mobile Phone:
4807389701

office Address:
Finance Department, The Wharton School
2316 Steinberg-Dietrich Hall
3620 Locust Walk
Philadelphia, PA 19104

Overview

I am a Ph.D. Candidate in Finance at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania. I am on the job market this year and will be available for interviews at the 2019 ASSA annual meeting in Atlanta.

Research Interests

Macro-finance, financial intermediation, financial fragility, macroeconomics

References

Itay Goldstein, Joao F. Gomes (Chair), Richard E. Kihlstrom, Nikolai Roussanov

Education

Ph.D. in Finance, The Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania (Expected: 2019)

M.A. in Economics, New Economic School (2014)

B.S. in Applied Physics and Mathematics, Moscow Institute of Physics and Technology (2012)

Research

Job market paper

Financial Networks over the Business Cycle

Abstract: I present a dynamic general equilibrium model in which financial interconnectedness endogenously changes over the business cycle and shapes systemic risk. To share individual risks, banks become interconnected through holding overlapping asset portfolios. Diversification reduces individual banks’ default probabilities but increases the similarity of their exposures to fundamental shocks. Systemic financial crises burst at the end of credit booms when productive investment opportunities are exhausted, banks’ balance sheets are weak, and their portfolios are strongly correlated. Under such circumstances, financial fragility is magnified, and even a moderate negative shock can lead to simultaneous defaults of many interconnected banks.

Other papers

Short-Run Pain, Long-Run Gain? Recessions and Technological Transformation (with Nikolai Roussanov and Mathieu Taschereau-Dumouchel)

Journal of Monetary Economics, Volume 97, August 2018, p. 29-44

Abstract: Recent empirical evidence suggests that skill-biased technological change accelerated during the Great Recession. We use a neoclassical growth framework to analyze how business cycle fluctuations interact with a long-run transition towards a skill-intensive technology. In the model, the adoption of new technologies by firms and the acquisition of new skills by workers are concentrated in downturns due to low opportunity costs. As a result, shocks lead to deeper recessions, but they also speed up adoption of the new technology. Our calibrated model matches both the long-run downward trend in routine employment and key features of the Great Recession.

Make America Great: Long-Run Impacts of Short-Run Public Investment (with Haotian Xiang)

Presented at Midwest Macroeconomics Meetings (2017), European Winter Meeting of the Econometric Society (2017), CEPR Conference “Growth and Inequality: Long-Term Effects of Short-Term Policies” (2018), Transatlantic Doctoral Conference (2018)

Abstract: We document S-shaped dynamics of the US economy associated with the construction of the Interstate Highway System in the 1960s. We then propose a business cycle model with two steady states arising due to productive public capital and production non-convexities. Small-scale short-run public investment programs generate transitory responses while large-scale ones can produce long-run impacts. Our quantitative analysis highlights the critical role played by public investment in explaining the economic dynamics around the 1960s. However, it casts doubt on the efficiency of a large public investment expansion in the post-Great Recession era.

A Macroeconomic Model of Bank Runs (with Haotian Xiang), Preliminary!

Abstract: We present a dynamic general equilibrium model of bank runs where global games are utilized as the equilibrium selection criterion. Coordination failures among bank creditors lead to panic-based runs. An endogenous borrowing constraint emerges as banks internalize the impact of their leverage decisions on the run probability. Our analyses suggest that runs triggered by panics impose a significant cost on the aggregate economy while those driven solely by fundamentals have almost negligible impacts. We highlight the quantitative importance of equilibrium selection criteria for our counterfactual results.

Alexandr Kopytov, Nikolai Roussanov, Mathieu Taschereau-Dumouchel (2017), Short-Run Pain, Long-Run Gain? Recessions and Technological Transformation, Journal of Monetary Economics.