The Global Allocative Efficiency of Deforestation

This paper quantifies global inefficient and spatially misallocated agricultural deforestation: carbon emissions-intensive deforestation on land with low agricultural yields. I estimate a global, plot-specific distribution of the elasticity of deforestation to changes in agricultural returns. Landowners in high-deforestation regions are less price elastic. I nest this distribution in a multi-sector equilibrium trade model to solve for a welfare-maximizing global carbon tax, assuming a $190 per ton social cost of carbon and no international revenue transfers. Against this benchmark, 63.1% of carbon emissions from deforestation since 1982 are inefficient. Food production rises under the optimal tax, driven by reallocating agriculture from high-emissions to high-yield land across countries. The US, Canada, and Europe benefit from the status quo allocation of emissions, providing a political economy explanation for the lack of coordinated deforestation policy. When emissions cannot reallocate across countries, optimal carbon taxes achieve 24% fewer emissions reductions and food production declines.